Monday, August 25, 2008

Playing Rising Dollar

Started position in UUP today. This is the only pure way I know to bet on dollar: this ETF shorts a basket of currencies. Initial position is small, will buy more if it goes down. Might buy more even if it goes up, I just hope for some down move. Might also buy DRR, which is a pure play dollar vs Euro.

Interesting action in oil right now. Looks like traders are completely ignoring any news from Russia and surroundings, judging (properly, from my point of view) that Russia is not going to cut production. But a lot of other news affect price a lot. Last week moves were a little bit scary, although Thursday's $6 jump can be explained by switch from September to October contracts (maybe). Every hurricane affects price, which tells me that US oil production is very important for the market. I'm staying away. I still think oil is going down long term, but there too many variables in play and I don't want to short long term.

Again, thanks to all my readers. I welcome all comments and don't want to moderate them (so far). I might moderate if I see some flame, of course. But my answer to all critics is: I report all my trades here. If you think I'm wrong, go against me. We'll see who wins. It's a fair game, you pay your own money to go against mine. If you win, then you were right, no matter how good my idea was. If you lose, I was right.

Full disclosure: at the time of publication author had a long position in UUP and no positions in other stocks mentioned. Positions can change any time.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advice. Every person should make her/his own investment decisions based on all available information and advice from her/his own financial advisor.

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