I'm happy that I sold significant part of my VmWare (VMW) position ahead of earnings. Drop after earnings was spectacular. Here's what I think is happening.
Cloud computing changes. It looks like companies are not that eager to create internal clouds. I'm sure that some companies are still doing it, but not enough for quite a crowded market. Which means that it's time to sell VmWare (VMW) and Red Hat (RHT), my other cloud position.
On the other hand, Infrastructure as a Service and Software as a Service models are doing great. For IaaS major providers are Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN). I own Google and Amazon looks scary with it's sky high valuation. For SaaS I'm watching Saleforce.com (CRM). Other providers include IBM (IBM), which also provides IaaS, Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL). But CRM is the only pure player. Of course, there are other providers in SaaS and IaaS areas, but I don't see anything significant. I'm looking.
Portfolio goal. Growth. This is high beta, unapologetic growth portfolio with some safeguards and some boring investments. The goal remains unchanged.
Basic Principles. Most of the stocks in this portfolio were chosen for long term investment, which, for me, is about 18 months. Every stock is under review all the time, with a major review of the portfolio twice a year. I can trade around any position if I feel like it. The portfolio is not diversified by sectors. Diversification reduces risk, but it also reduces potential gain. No change in basic principles either.
Strategy. As I already mentioned in my blog before, political environment doesn't look good for the economy. Strategy changes: increased cash cushion, reduced long positions, more trading around positions.
Paradigm Changers. These are stocks of companies that are changing business in sectors or even in the whole world.
Company provides and supports Red Hat Linux, the most popular Linux distribution in enterprise world. Recently this OS became the most popular OS in clouds. But, as with VmWare (VMW), I'm not sure that internal clouds are winning.
No changes since last review.
Risk: high valuation requires high growth. Any slowdown can crash the stock.
Probably the best Spanish, and maybe European bank out there. High yield, big investments around the world. Bought it because I believe in resolution of Euro troubles. This is also can be placed in International part of the review.
No change since last review.
Risk: Currency fluctuations, more problems in Eurozone.
Steady growers / high yield. Companies with steady growth, high dividend or both. I am increasing weight of this group, such companies are best investments in depression times.
I have a group of closed-end funds, which are bought when at discount to net asset value or at low premium and sold at high premium. There are two groups of funds: corporate bond funds and muni funds. There are too many of them and they are rotating too fast to present them in the portfolio review. Watch my trades on stocktalk of Seeking Alpha.