Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Apple to the Rescue

Apple (AAPL) earnings beat was wonderful. It really rescued this market. For a day, at least. I don't know where it's going though. I feel that bull market should continue, but there are several problems. Short term, Nasdaq should stay above 3000. This is a critical level. European jitters should stop. There is nothing there, not really. Spain and Italy have smaller debt to GDP ratios than US and UK. Portugal and Ireland are really in trouble, but somehow nobody talks about them. Maybe because they can't move markets, too small.
My biggest worry for now? Cramer and Kass are both bullish. Almost every time that happens, market drops 5-10%.
Trades yesterday:
Closed CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) position. This was a hedge for my European vacation. Vacation is over, hedge is closed. Small profit is a good icing.
Added to ARM Holding (ARMH) position. Stock trades in 25-29 range for more than half a year, there is money here.
Added to BlackRock Long-Term Municipal Advantage Trust (BTA) position. Just a good cash placeholder.
Today: closed Managed Duration Investment Grade Municipal Fund (MZF). I like it, but not at almost 5% premium to NAV.
Disclosure: I am long ARMHBTA.
Additional disclosure: I have no positions in AAPL, MZF and FXE. Positions can change any time.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Is Market Changing Direction?

I'm back from vacation. Barcelona was great. Market action today, not so great. Based on earnings last week, I expected something better.

Indices look bad. Nasdaq fell under 3000. S&P just barely staying above 1360. But this year Nazz was a leading index. Tomorrow is a critical day. If Nasdaq can recover, we might be still in a bull mode. If not, I expect bad things. At least until the end of April.

Thursday, April 12, 2012


I don't know what can scare this bull market. Unemployment report was bad, Fed is not giving investors carrot (I mean, QE), news from Europe are not encouraging, to put it mildly. And market is up!

First, my take on Europe. I think the biggest problem in Europe was Trichet. His inflexible, stupid, deflationist position created the possibility of sovereign debt crisis. If money is tight and economy is in a bad shape, money is going to the safest places. Obviously, some government bonds are safer than others. But crisis wouldn't be that bad if not for hedge funds. Somebody is playing big bear on sovereign debt. I have a strong suspicion that those somebodies influence at least part of media, trying to scare investors. Case in point: another scare this week, this time on Spanish debt. Small change in government finances was reported as a world changing event: look, Spain is going to default and it's 14th biggest economy in the world. If Trichet was still in charge, that scare could actually work. But now ECB said in plain language that they would buy sovereign debt, if necessary. Bears, back to the cave. And I wonder, if some media is not paid by bears. Just my speculation, I have no evidence. If I had, I'd share it with FCC.

Now, it appears, sovereign debt is the only thing which can scare this market. Good. I'm bullish since mid-January and I'm going to continue increasing my long equity portfolio.

Trades this week:
Added to DSW Shoe Warehouse (DSW) position on Tuesday (bought the weakness).
Added to ARM Holding (ARMH) position on Tuesday (essentially bought back for 27.35 shares sold earlier for 29.10).
Sold part of Google (GOOG) position today into strength. A little bit more about Google. I don't like today's earnings report. I don't like the idea of splitting stock into voting and non-voting (it's just financial engineering, has nothing to do with company's business). I don't like the fact that per-click revenue is down second quarter in a row. I need to read more about this earnings report before making a decision, but it looks like I'm going to reduce my position more.

Disclosure: I am long DSW, ARMH, GOOG.
Additional disclosure: Positions can change any time.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Trading Around

Three trades today.
Closed Eaton Vance California Minucipal Incom eTrust (CEV) position. This closed-end fund reduced payouts. I decided to sell it before other people did. This trade is also in line with strategy of reducing fixed income positions.
Took a little bit of profits on ARM Holding (ARMH). This stock currently trades in 26-29 dollars range. Sold part of it on top of the range. I might be wrong and stock might break out from here, but I still have a significant position in it.
Opened a new position: Qualcomm (QCOM). Company is the part of mobile internet revolution (as well as ARMH). It's scary to buy stock near 52 weeks high, but it worked this year so far. I don't care how I make money as long as I make it.
Disclosure: I am long QCOM, ARMH.
Additional disclosure: I have no positions in CEV. Positions can change any time.

Monday, April 2, 2012

Reducing BTA On Valuation

Today I sold part of my Blackrock Long Term Municipal Advantage Trust (BTA). Reason is simple: in the morning, this closed-end fund traded at more than 4% premium to its net asset value. I have nothing against BTA, to my taste it's the best muni CEF. If (when) it's going to trade at discount to NAV, I will buy it back. But profits are made to be taken.

Disclosure: I am long BTA.
Additional disclosure: Positions can change any time.