Muddling Investor

I like precious metals, miners right now. I study...

2009-12-05T23:54:57.603-06:00

I like precious metals, miners right now. I study all the miners alot and there is one who looks good on paper: Kinross [KGC]. However, their largest asset in a property in Russia. I would not invest with them for fear that there is much political risk of confiscation of that property by the Russian government. They are mafia.

alex, be patient. dont write off Brazil yet. ...

2009-12-05T23:45:28.246-06:00

alex,

be patient. dont write off Brazil yet.
1st, Brazil does NOT export just raw commodity products; they have a balanced export economy including many finished products including steel, automobiles, aircraft, as well as iron, beef, soy, other ags.
2nd, LDS (Lula) may "look" like he is consorting with Chavez, but don't kid yourself. That is just mainly for show and manipulation. They have Oil in common. But there is no comparison between LDS and Hugo: Lula is an intelligent politician and understands economics, whereas Chavez is simply a brute who rules by fear, but had zero education and understanding of little else (note his purchase of an old battleship from Russia: not clever)

Brazil has a great future and they are on path to grow and prosper with Oil, iron and other mineral wealth, Ag products, manufactured goods. They have their finances in order, unlike Chavez who has run off all the economists in Venezuela. The banks will be leading the way in that prosperity going forward. Itau and Bradesco are strong investments for the next decade. As are Gerdau, and Petrobras. Hold on.

I'm bullish on PGF because I'm bullish on US banki...

2009-11-04T22:38:18.669-06:00

I'm bullish on PGF because I'm bullish on US banking system. PGF is an ETF which is invested in preferred shares of banks. Banks issue preferred shares, which are more like bonds, but trade like stocks. Face value of preferreds is usually $25, and that's what I expect PGF eventually to come to. And while waiting, I'm collecting 9% dividend, paid montly.
The risk is that a lot of banks might fail, and their preferreds, which are not first in line in case of bank closure by FDIC, get cancelled. If you don't believe in something like 500+ banks failing in the nearest 12 months, this ETF is underpriced.

why the bullishness on PGF? can you explain your r...

2009-11-04T12:07:13.996-06:00

why the bullishness on PGF? can you explain your rationale in more detail. I've been watching it but havent pulled the trigger. Thank you.

I am also long in NFLX based upon their fundamenta...

2009-09-04T09:11:56.439-05:00

I am also long in NFLX based upon their fundamentals, which are all the right reasons. I am not a seasoned investor but want to hold strong companies that have strong future potential. I've held NFLX through news like the Google deal yesterday and it seems to always take the "reactive" drop because, quite frankly, people don't know what they are holding in their portfolio. Yes, I do have a price target in mind for a sell point, and yes, I am not an emotional investor. I'm in it to make money. NFLX is an attractive addition to the portfolio at its current price levels. I would buy more but I'm all in right now. And when the time is right and my sell price is there, I will look for another great deal like NFLX.

I looked through the articles. I can say that extr...

2009-07-24T13:39:47.709-05:00

I looked through the articles. I can say that extraordinary claims should also come with extraordinary proof. Fact that Cramer know a lot of people on Wall Street and CNBC only proves that he was a big trader on Wall Street. Most of the facts provided either prove nothing or just a hearsay.

I made a lot of money on Cramer's advice, that's why I read him and watch him. A lot of time I disagree with him, but in this case I just don't follow his advice. And, of course, I always follow Cramer's advice #1: do your own homework.

An attempt to make the above links, "hot links" th...

2009-07-24T10:36:51.930-05:00

An attempt to make the above links, "hot links" that are "clickable":

Jim Cramer Uses CNBC to Manipulate Stocks

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/3/5/16720/74815/703/705113

The Story of Deep Capture

http://www.deepcapture.com/the-story-of-deep-capture-by-mark-mitchell/

I thought I might mention a couple of online artic...

2009-07-24T10:32:51.852-05:00

I thought I might mention a couple of online articles that make some pretty serious allegations about Cramer's integrity with regard to his investment advice. I can't vouch for the veracity of the articles, but it would seem to me to be prudent to at least give them a look, as at least the 2nd author appears to be a credible source, the articles seem to be cogent, well written and reasonable, and they do give some sources:

Jim Cramer Uses CNBC to Manipulate Stocks
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/3/5/16720/74815/703/705113

The Story of Deep Capture
http://www.deepcapture.com/the-story-of-deep-capture-by-mark-mitchell/

..."Some mainstream journalists will not like this story. They will perhaps disapprove of our methods or decry the advent of vigilante journalism. But most of all, they will not like this story because it is largely about them – a tale of reporters who seek to be players, but instead become pawns – a tale of prominent journalists who help cover up a massive financial crime while toadying to some of Wall Street’s slimiest operators." ...

I am an IT specialist myself. And to my taste, VmW...

2009-06-16T22:29:48.268-05:00

I am an IT specialist myself. And to my taste, VmWare sucks. It works. But you are right, it's mostly good to make many VMs run Windows, so Windows servers can run one important service each, without creating software interference problems. And I have no doubts that Linux is much better OS for everything, especially for cloud.
But remember, if 30 years "nobody got fired fot buying IBM", now it's "nobody gets fired for buying Microsoft". Because data centers around the world are drowning in Windows crap, they need some way to manage it. And VmWare is the answer IT managers understand.

You make this sound soo simple:) So simple in fact...

2009-06-16T13:25:41.468-05:00

You make this sound soo simple:) So simple in fact, that I had to spoil this a little... In fact VmWare is not neccessery for cloud computing - they are just the best known proprietory hypervisor maker. There are now plenty of good open source hypervisors out (VirtualBox, KVM, Qemu, etc.) All of them are free, and they integrate better with linux, that is the major OS in these "clouds". And Amazon is not using VmWare for their cloud. And that is important because, they actually invented the whole cloud hysteria. They are THE major cloud platform - what they do reverberates though the industry, because they lead it in the cloud;). They have just open sourced it's core technologies (project eucalyptus if i remember...). That spells trouble for VmWare. There is nothing wrong with the company, and in fact it might continue to do good. The problem is that they might have just about peaked. Like Microsoft and like Google. Even MSFT and GOOG has more potential to reinvent themselves then VmWare. Virtualisation became popular by allowing to seperate unstable, insecure and crappy operating systems (think Windows) from each other, so that the services they provide wouldn't crash together - all at once. And provide some nice management options for some of the more stable systems, but still at HUGE performance penalty. Also, there are more and more serious reports about the performance problems that come with virtualisation starting to come in, whereas before it was mostly hype about how cool this is. It is in fact a very unwise thing - buy a huge powerful server, stuff it full of instances of slow virtual machines and then try to beat others on selling this stuff wholesale to remote clients. Like most legacy technology ideas, it's a race towards 0. Still it might take a some time while the market fully realizes it.

I don't know why everyone at seekingalpha doesn't ...

2009-05-27T12:39:11.200-05:00

I don't know why everyone at seekingalpha doesn't recognize the buy opportunities, and thinks the only way to make money is to short the market. There are a lot of great businesses that have been thrown out with the bath water, that can still be bought at good valuations. Many in tech, which you have been pushing. I've been doing very well selling AAPL put options.

I've been thinking about MTB as a bank? I bank with them, they're expanding, are known to be very conservative. They do have a lot of commercial real estate exposure though, oh, and the whole AIB own's a 25% stake.

The comment here was an obvious advertisement. Aga...

2009-05-19T09:00:00.000-05:00

The comment here was an obvious advertisement. Again, if you want to advertise on my blog, please contact me. All obvious ad comments are going to be removed.

Mhariono, Unfortunately, I'm not a real estate in...

2009-04-30T09:08:00.000-05:00

Mhariono,

Unfortunately, I'm not a real estate investor at all. I think you need to contact real estate investment companies in US.

Hi, I am from Indonesia. I ask you.How did search ...

2009-04-29T23:45:00.000-05:00

Hi, I am from Indonesia.
I ask you.How did search to investors
for property in Indonesia from your country ? help me please
Sory ,my english not good

Fat lady sings? How about this one: http://www.yo...

2009-04-23T09:24:00.000-05:00

Fat lady sings? How about this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxPZh4AnWyk

ain't over til the fat lady sings!

2009-04-22T10:56:00.000-05:00

ain't over til the fat lady sings!

Another spam in my blog. Again, anybody who wants ...

2009-04-17T09:25:00.000-05:00

Another spam in my blog. Again, anybody who wants to advertise here, contact me.

Fixed chart.

2009-04-16T15:56:00.000-05:00

Fixed chart.

Your chart is not enlarging on this post. Can you ...

2009-04-16T02:28:00.000-05:00

Your chart is not enlarging on this post. Can you fix that so I can post it properly on Seeking Alpha?

Thanks
Abbi Adest (your editor)

Alex-The hole in your reasoning is that you assume...

2009-04-03T07:30:00.000-05:00

Alex-

The hole in your reasoning is that you assume that all television programming purporting to be news is really news and not just entertainment. There are other examples beyond Jim Cramer and CNBC. You need to start looking at these things for what they are, not what you think or want them to be.

Jim Cramer knows about long term investing. I high...

2009-03-15T23:02:00.000-05:00

Jim Cramer knows about long term investing. I highly recommend you to read his books. Of course, he knows about trading as well, you can't run hedge fund without it.
And what investment advice can I get from Jon Stewart?

Cramer knows something, but I'm not sure that he k...

2009-03-15T00:07:00.000-05:00

Cramer knows something, but I'm not sure that he knows what he acts like he knows.

Cramer seems to know a lot of tricks for gaming short term swings in the market while running a hedge fund. That doesn't necessarily make him a good person to listen to for long term investing advice. He knows all the lingo but he may just be shooting from the hip when it comes to picking stocks.

For not knowing anything about investing, I think Stewart hit the nail on the head quite a few times.

The comment sent by Clayton has been deleted. If y...

2009-03-11T16:45:00.000-05:00

The comment sent by Clayton has been deleted. If you want to advertise on my blog, let me know.

Agree with your analysis, Alex!As for the technica...

2009-02-11T12:13:00.000-06:00

Agree with your analysis, Alex!
As for the technical analysis, there is no signal there for a 'bottom'; although we just might be seeing the biginning of a bottoming process. Formations like these usually follow the general direction of the broader markets!

Thank you for the kind comment. I know that I am p...

2009-02-06T08:56:00.000-06:00

Thank you for the kind comment. I know that I am paranoid, the question is: am I paranoid enough?