Friday, August 22, 2008

Market Has No Memory

Of course, that's what Jim Cramer said lately. And, before him, Todd Harrison. And, if I'm not mistaken, great gray-bearded Doug Kass. But it doesn't make things any easier. Investing long term is dangerous, because we can run into depression. No great companies on the horizon, those would do great in any environment. The only long term theme right now is defense, Cold War II has started, if anybody has any doubt, just read Russian press. Wild mix of xenophobia, nationalism, irrational anti-western rant and plain stupidity. Right now those guys think they are ready to take on the world. Could be laughable if country didn't have nukes. So defense it is.

Trading is not easy either. I got lucky with Goldman Sachs and shorting oil lately. Correction: lucky with Goldman, oil was realization of the right idea. But, anyway, I don't see easy trades right now. Financials are close to be worthless. I know that GS is the best, but they are getting killed by market as group members. Shorting oil long term? I'm not crazy, would never short long term. Short Russia? Scary, and options on RSX are way too illiquid. So I'm waiting for something obvious (to me). Hit it to quit it, as Toddo would say.

OK, enough about being depressed by market. On Monday I have to buy something, unless there is a huge rally. Keep reading...

Full disclosure: at the time of publication author had no positions in any stocks mentioned. Positions can change any time.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advice. Every person should make her/his own investment decisions based on all available information and advice from her/his own financial advisor.

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