Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Amazing Rally

My bullish article, republished by Seeking Alpha here, has been met with a lot of unbelieving comments. Which just makes my argument even stronger: this market is driven by sentiment, and mostly bearish sentiment just makes current rally stronger.

There was a hint of changing sentiment last week, but pullback on Wednesday and Thursday killed it off. I'm almost certain now that this rally is going to continue until current quarter ends. There are a lot of hedge funds which were mostly in cash or short the market, which need to show good performance for the quarter. They will get into window dressing mode, just to show that they own stocks which were up good for the quarter.

Until then, it's buy, buy, buy. I'm usually buying on a good pullback, but this time is different. Sideways action is as good buying time as a pullback. And I'm sticking to my favorites: tech, banks and debt. They worked this quarter, they will work through June.

Comes July, things will be different. Maybe sentiment is going to change or maybe we'll see buying panic. In either case, I'm taking profits.

Seeking Alpha Certified

1 comment:

Anthony B said...

I don't know why everyone at seekingalpha doesn't recognize the buy opportunities, and thinks the only way to make money is to short the market. There are a lot of great businesses that have been thrown out with the bath water, that can still be bought at good valuations. Many in tech, which you have been pushing. I've been doing very well selling AAPL put options.

I've been thinking about MTB as a bank? I bank with them, they're expanding, are known to be very conservative. They do have a lot of commercial real estate exposure though, oh, and the whole AIB own's a 25% stake.