Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Nasdaq: Bearish Patterns.

Tech market was running great lately. But it looks like running out of steam. Let's take a look at the chart of Nasdaq composite index since beginning of this year (click on chart to see bigger picture):

We can see several bearish signs here. First of all, Naz crossed 200 day moving average (MA200) on May 4, but dropped under it three days later. Second, there is a head and shoulders pattern. Third, index dropped under 13 day moving average (MA13) today. There is a triangle pattern which is still unresolved. And this triangle is framed by MA 200 and MA13! Index is already below MA13, if we get confirmation soon, it's very bearish.

Market had a great bull run, 9 weeks over 13 day moving average, with one drop below MA13. It's hard to imagine such run continue much longer, without at least some consolidation. Nasdaq was a leader in this run, and now it's faltering.

As mentioned here, I changed my stance to bullish in the end of March. I'm waiting for the dips to increase my current positions or open new ones. Looks like there is a good dip ahead.

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