Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Dow Is Over 13 Days MA!

Still I don't believe that we have a global bottom. I'm not even sure about local one. But at least there is a good reason to believe that sell-off which started on Feb 10 has now finished. Which would mean that Dow is settling in the new range. Bottom of the range is around 6500, top is to be defined. Usually during bear markets bottom of the previous range becomes top of the next one, but last sell-off was way too steep for that. Top of the range is probably between 7000 and 7500.

Usually I'm astonished looking at dancing bull Cramer. But tonight I'm kinda agree with him. Whether market goes up or down from here, latest quick drop finished.

Gold action is interesting. streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF (GLD) managed to stay above 50 days moving average. As you can see on the chart below, GLD has a classic triangle formation. Click on chart to see bigger picture.

Today Dow managed to cross over 13 days moving average. This is a crucial event, as I mentioned yesterday here.

Technicals tell me that GLD poised to go higher. Of course, fundamentals are still bearish for gold. But current market is technical, and unless GLD breaks down 50 days MA, it's in a bull run. And probably it makes sense, there is a lot of hot money on sidelines right now, small fracture of it can make or break any market, never mind such sensitive one as gold.

Full disclosure: at the time of publication author had no positions in GLD. Positions can change any time.

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