Monday, May 14, 2012
Market is going down. About as fast as it was going up in January. Again, when Jim Cramer and Doug Kass are both bullish, it's a very bearish sign. Cramer became bearish lately, which might help things a bit.
Fundamentals are OK. Earnings are really good, interest rates are low, commodity prices are going down. I don't see anything bad with the latter, quite the opposite. Especially oil. By the way, people forgot why oil went over $100 in the first place and now blame economy and Europe. But in March, oil went up because if Iran. Everybody expected Israel to hit Iran. Didn't happen. Not likely until winter. Might not happen at all. I think taking Iran out of equation took 10 dollars from the price of oil. The only problem so far is Europe, and I don't really see difference between January and now. That's more a perception of problem than the problem itself. Of course, we know that perception is reality until proven otherwise.
Technicals are awful. Indices went down through two levels of support. Markets are oversold, so what? They can be oversold for a long time.
Sentiment. There is a positive change here. In the end of April, almost everybody was bullish. Now, after two weeks of relentless sell-off, many analysts turned bearish. Cramer is bearish too. That's something. Sentiment is always a contrarian indicator.
So we have bearish technicals, bullish fundamentals and neutral to bullish sentiment. I'd like to call bullish outlook, but this sell-off is too persistent.
Posted by Alex Filonov at 10:51 PM