Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Feels Like A Bottom

Markets are calming down. Last week wasn't that bad. This week started bullish. Let's see what we have in cards.

Fundamentals are still good. At least in US. Economy maybe not growing fast, but it's growing. More to the point, profits are growing faster than economy, and profits define stock valuations. Big headwinds are Europe and China. I hope Europe will get its act together. As for China, things are much worse than they appear. If Chinese economy is growing slower than expected, it's no big deal. There are much bigger problems with China. Statistics are not reliable, to put it mildly. Banks still work in communist era, decisions to issue credits are made in governments of different levels, not in the bank offices. And political situation is not that stable as Communist Party wants you to believe. But even China matters much less than growing US profits.

Technicals are awful, but they are usually awful at the bottom.

Sentiment is great. I mean, it's so bad that I feel good.

In short, it does feel like a bottom. Of course, I might be wrong. Should stay humble, or market will do it for me (yes, this is what Todd Harrison is saying).

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