Thursday, February 4, 2010


"We don't have problems, we have challenges and opportunities".
Applied to market, this old management saying can be rephrased as "we don't have drops, we have buying opportunities". I'm almost ready to agree with that, except for one thing: technicals. They are not just bad, they are awful. Only one thing can be judged as optimistic: major indices are still above major downside trend, which started in November 200.

Sentiment, on the other hand, is quite gloomy, which is good, because sentiment is a contrarian indicator.

Fundamentals are getting better. I really like most of the earnings reports coming in. But in global economy other countries matter too. And we see Europe sinking on concerns about Greek finances, and China finally trying to do something with huge bubble built there. I'm not worried much about Europe, they will recover, eventually. About half a year after European Bank start quantitative easing (helped here and in UK). China is a different matter. Bubble built there is so big, the whole world will be sprayed when it bursts. But I still think it will not happen this year.

I'm with Cramer on current drop of stock market. I also think that main reason is a huge sell-off by hedge funds which use every excuse to sell. Unfortunately, we don't know how big this sell-off is going to be. There is only one strategy which is probably going to work: start buying on the way down. I have my shopping list ready, so far no target price was hit. Waiting for lower prices.

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