Tuesday, October 28, 2008

What a Day!

It's a confirmation that's we are in a bear market. It was mentioned many times already that big upside days don't happen in bull market, when market "climbs a wall of worry".

Didn't trade anything today. May be will sell something tomorrow, we'll see.

I want to add a little bit to my previous article (this one). There might be some misunderstanding how structural crises work. Emergence of new technologies doesn't mean that there will be a structural crisis. New technology need to change something radically, change the way a lot, better yet, most, people live. In 1920s that new technologies were automobile and tractor. They were not new, but in 1920s they mostly replaced horse in transport and agriculture. That changed the way most people lived in the developed world. Lots of businesses were created to produce, service and distribute new technologies. That created 1920s boom. But then changes in the economy created huge imbalances. Not only old businesses (horse harnesses, veterinary services etc.) started dying en mass but also demand for agricultural goods fell (less horses to feed), productivity grew up a lot in agriculture, moving people into the cities, transport became much cheaper. That's the level of change you need for structural crisis. That's why I don't think that the Internet alone could be enough to create structural crisis. It didn't bring enough changes to people and businesses. But together with globalization, it's quite another matter.

No comments: