Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Sweet Apple?

Added a little bit of Apple today, 2 minutes before close. Price was way too low, below 92. Looks like I'm going to pick up some profit on it, after hours it closed over 103.

This is a trade, my current position is big enough. I mean, Apple is pretty low at any price below 150, but with current multiple contraction, I don't know when is it going to grow.

There is still a lot of talk about inflation around, although some people start to wake up. I'd like to have inflation now! No such luck, we are in deflation. Banks just don't want to lend. Libor is going down, good. Banks lend to each other. But they cut credits to businesses and people and that's the problem. As far as I see, almost nobody's buying commercial paper.

Currencies behave as I predicted. The only strange thing is a jump of yen. What, Japanese Central Bank doesn't dump yens for dollars anymore? Anyway, I'm not selling my UUP position any time soon. Maybe swap out of it in the end of the year, just to avoid all K1 troubles.

Precious metals are strange. Gold holds somehow, silver is down, and platinum is down huge! It was over 2000 just several months ago, now it's below 900! OK, part of it is South Africa situation, but come on! I know, auto companies spread the rumor that they are working on some nanotech way to reduce platinum usage, but it's not gonna happen next year. Something strange is going on here. Maybe Russia dumps a lot of metal? Need to look it up, might be some profit here.

Full disclosure: at the time of publication author had long positions in AAPL and UUP and no positions in other stocks mentioned. Positions can change any time.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advice. Every person should make her/his own investment decisions based on all available information and advice from her/his own financial advisor.

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