Tuesday, September 16, 2008

It's Worse Than You Thought

Hell, it's even worse than I thought. And if somebody can mistake me for an optimist, it's only in a sense of an old joke: pessimist thinks it can't get any worse when optimist is sure that it can. Thanks government for saving (in a sense) AIG. No thanks to Uncle Ben: Rates are too high at 2%. Hell, in half a year you would dream of negative rates, but such thing doesn't exist. It's time to start helicopters!

Seriously, we are quickly running into deflation. And it will get us, like tar pit: slowly but surely. Maybe emergency cuts would come. Afraid that would be too late, too little. Some time ago I wrote "Why So Much Gloom". Now I know.

Looks like my call on Google and Intuitive Surgical was right. Didn't have any time yesterday, it was time to buy something. Didn't have time to analyze Goldman Sachs earnings today. Cramer says it was good. Dunno. Anyways, my job stayed in the way of stock trading last two days. I'll try to do better later.

But. The cash is the king. The dollar is the king of cash (and yen is a queen). Some tech with very deep pockets and very high growth rate might be good despite of everything. Anything else is scary. I'm thinking of selling every rally instead of buying dips.

Long forgotten, but necessary addition to the list of basket case countries:

Haiti: Type 1 (was type 2 under Docs, but nobody knows how to fix it). I think only North Korea is worse, but I might be wrong.

Full disclosure: at the time of publication author had long positions in Google, Intuitive Surgical and US dollar via UUP, and no positions in other stocks mentioned. Positions can change any time.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advice. Every person should make her/his own investment decisions based on all available information and advice from her/his own financial advisor.

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