Thursday, September 18, 2008

Crazy Day, Crazy Market

Unbelievable. That's all I can say about today.

Not much activity for me. Added to my UUP position. I'm sure that dollar will grow, whether it's good or bad.

Two themes today.

First. Jim Cramer needs to see a specialist. This article might be enough for diagnosis, but I'm not a professional shrink. There is no financial force in the world to manipulate US market. Even part of the market, financials. You need to have huge money to do that, nobody has that much. Simple truth: people are afraid of financials, especially investment banks, and sell them with abandon. It's not necessary to sell short to kill stock. You can just sell what you have. If big guys sell a lot, it's enough.

Hot money is looking for home. Since crash of commodities, a lot of money wants to find something, anything, to invest to. Attempts were made in financials, tech, yesterday and today in gold, silver and other commodities. Even oil, although that one can't keep a gain no matter what. This problem is going to get worse until the end of this month. Funds of different kind are doing window dressing right now, and the only good thing they can show on accounts right now is cash. I'm afraid that sell-off will continue because of this, despite all government efforts. By the way, window dressing might explain sell-off of financials. Unless foreigners come and rescue market. Like in Russian joke in the end of 1980s: there are two ways to save country: fantastic, we will do it ourselves. Or realistic, aliens will come in flying saucers and rescue us.

What to do? I still want to buy more at current prices. Work interferes with investments again, but tomorrow, again, is another day. Probably need to buy something before month end, maybe even Goldman. Price below book value is too tempting. The only problem is that I don't know how much commodities Goldman had on books in the end of August, now they all worth less.

Full disclosure: at the time of publication author had a long position in UUP, and no positions in other stocks mentioned. Positions can change any time.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advice. Every person should make her/his own investment decisions based on all available information and advice from her/his own financial advisor.

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