Monday, July 21, 2008

Tired of Talk About Uptick Rule

I know that Jim Cramer doesn't read me. But I just don't understand his obsession with uptick rule. OK, when he was trading he had to deal with it. So what? When I was younger, girls liked me more than now. The biggest problem with this obsession: it misses the point. When there is rampant speculation on the oil futures market, which is threatening to kill world's economy, Jim is saying: it's supply/demand. Tell me Jim, what company was killed by shorts? Bear Stearns? No, it was killed by its own customers, it was classic run on bank, and FDIC doesn't cover brokerage accounts. There was a bear raid on Lehman Brothers, it failed. Any more proof of bear raids by shorts? They are actually too tame, because, strangely enough, Countrywide and WaMu are still alive! Naked shorting is illegal anyway, uptick rule or not. I just don't understand, why Jim isn't crying out loud that huge pension funds, sovereign funds and hedge funds opened huge positions on commodities markets and rolling them over, completely skewing market picture. I know that in the end they will lose big, nobody is so powerful as to defeat Mr. Market. He'll humble anybody. But for the short time, they are hurting everybody, at least people like me and you, who has to fill gas tank once a week.

I usually don't write about politics. But today's decision by Nancy Pelosi not to consider repeal of offshore drilling ban is a total outrage. We need oil. There is no substitution. Not now. Not in twenty years. She just made oil more expensive for all of us.

Tech market is killing me. Why Apple sell-off? Yeah, right, low outlook. Is it the first time? Or the second? Apple always lowballing its outlook. Somehow missed the fact that computer sales are up 41% compared to the last year's quarter. That's bread and butter, iPod and iPhone are just icing. I was reducing my Apple position for different reasons, but at current prices might buy back some.

Ditto for Google. Looks like earnings are lower than expected because of smaller interest on the cash pile. I am looking at adding to my position under 440.

Thinking on small bets for sector rotation. It might be healthcare, and drugs seem tempting after Genetech takeover, and, surprise, banking sector. Waiting for good entry points for Goldman Sachs (yes, I want it back) and maybe Wachovia or Wells Fargo.

Other news. Icahn lost with Yahoo!. He still can make trouble, force sale of Asian investments, which would be huge mistake at current prices or some other stupid decision. But MicroHoo! is dead. Dead dead. Microsoft either wants Yahoo! with people or wants to destroy it. But it won't pay $33 per share for destruction. Probably not even $25.

Full disclosure: at the time of publication author had long positions in Google and Apple and no positions in other stocks mentioned. Positions can change any time.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advice. Every person should make her/his own investment decisions based on all available information and advice from her/his own financial advisor.

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