Friday, May 23, 2008

Buying back BBD

Bought back portion of Banco Bradesco shares (BBD), which I sold earlier at 25.10. Maybe it goes down more, I can increase this position still.

Oil bubble is growing. How much more? Unfortunately, shorting parabolic chart is a known kind of suicide. Maybe some long term options on DUG or OIH. Doug Kass is long former and short latter, but he is kinda two heads above me in the shorts game. Kass is short oil, Cramer is long. Who is right? We'll see.

Microhoo saga just can't die. Ballmer now says that he doesn't want Yahoo! and never really wanted it. I can translate it two ways: either he wanted amicable agreement (why hostile offer then?) or he just wanted to destroy Yahoo! by tying it in the proxy battles. The former doesn't look right, things are not done this way in Silicon Valley. Not unless you are Larry Ellison, but he is from Silicon Valley, he gets more slack there. The latter is just absolutely against law, which is mentioned in today's "Fast Money". I don't know if SEC is going to investigate this, our current administration doesn't believe in antitrust enforcement, but it should. Way too easy for big company to destroy competitor: make an offer which most probably won't be accepted. Icahn probably doesn't understand what he bought. I think Motorola debacle would be peanuts compared to Yahoo! He either loses proxy battle and money, or wins and if MSFT doesn't make an offer, loses money again. The only way Icahn can make money is if he wins proxy battle and Ballmer makes an offer. Would be this offer above $30? I doubt it, who's going to overbid when seller is desperate? And the main question is: what if Ballmer doesn't want Yahoo! without Yang and Filo? I have sneaking suspition that that was the main problem of talks between Yang and Ballmer.

Full disclosure: at the time of publication author had a long position in BBD and doesn't have any positions in other companies mentioned in this article. Positions can change any time.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advice. Every person should make her/his own investment decisions based on all available information and advice from her/his own financial advisor.

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