Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Santa arrived?

I decided to do all blogging here. I had a blog on, but I couldn't get into it (until today) after stockpickr software update.

Is it Santa Claus rally? Does it look too good? Wall of worry helps, of course, but it's based on very real concerns. Usually wall of worry consists mostly of old age grumble (I can do it too, and I do!), but now, real estate crisis is real. It's the first time since Great Depression when residential real estate prices fell for the country. With inept Fed, possibility of something like GD is, to put it mildly, higher than 0.

GD recipe consisted of:

1. Structural crisis.
2. Financial crisis, created mostly by government and Fed.
3. Real estate crisis.

We have (3) and possibly (2). Can we have structural crisis? Who knows. There were a lot of changes in economy lately, are they enough? Internet and globalization are significant forces, but it's hard to calculate their combined hit on old economic models. We have deadwood papers (sorry, newspapers) in decline, TV is about to be hit by internet advertising, outsourcing already done whatever it could. Yeah, music business is almost dead, at least big 5 (or is it 4 already?). All of the above is not a very big chunk of economy to create big structural crisis. But have I overlooked something? Can PayPal, Google checkout etc. undermine banking system? Can VOIP kill phone companies? And if both are true, is it enough for structural crisis?

If economists read this, they'd say: rubbish. But GD happened in Japan in 1990s and they still aren't out of the woods.

Uncle Ben (Bernadke), please, save us!

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