Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Slow Days

End of month. Traders are obviously waiting for:
Fed to say something
ECB to do something
August 1st to show market direction.
I think what's going to happen:
Fed will say nothing, at least nothing new.
ECB will say a lot and do nothing.
First days of August will show nothing.
Market indices are at the top of the current range. Some traders are waiting for a breakthrough. Some are taking profits on long positions. Fund managers are doing window dressing, trying not to be to obvious, not to draw SEC attention. That's why last two days were so slow.
I don't know what is going to happen next. August can start with a bang or not. One thing I know for sure: politicians (and central bank heads are politicians, whether they want it or not) don't want to make any decisions. Not now. Later, when vacations and Olympic games are over, maybe. So I could've expected slow grind (and trading in range) to continue in August, but for one thing. Hot money. I don't know where is it going next. And, unfortunately, hot money makes market now. Quite often with little help from media (when SEC and Justice are going to look at suspicious transactions coinciding with suspicious publications at last?)
I didn't do much this week. Sold calls against long positions in Red Hat (RHT) and ARM holding (ARMH) and bought puts on QQQ for insurance, that's it. Waiting for market direction.
Disclosure: I am long RHTARMH.
Additional disclosure: I am short RHT, ARMH calls against long positions and long QQQ puts. Positions can change any time.

No comments: