Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Short Term View

Common view: this market is defined mostly by Europe, and metrics don't matter. Common view is usually wrong. Well, I correct myself: common view is usually right, but you can't make money off it. You make money when common view is wrong and you can see it before others. Disclaimer: I don't claim such powers, just trying to make a penny. And another.


Ugly. The only bright spot was perfect reverse head and shoulders formation in S&P, but it's got broken today.


US is surprisingly robust. Stocks should reflect future earnings, right? Well, earnings are great, and they might be even better in the nearest future. The main problem is Europe. Some people say: "so what, US only exports about 5% to Europe, even 10% drop is peanuts", Well, US and Europe are tied together with millions of different connections. Physical goods is just a small part of those connections. Money flows between us are much, much bigger. Europe is going into recession next year with high probability. I think market is trying to discount effect on US markets.
In short, fundamentals are good short term, but uncertain long term.


Funny. I don't have other definition for it. Every time S&P is close to 1250, sentiment is bullish. Every time index drops close to 1200, it's bearish. Sentiment follow market now, I think we can safely ignore it.

And here's the problem: market doesn't have a direction. Doug Kass mad a great call for this year, predicting range bound market. So it is. Even Santa Claus rally failed to materialize so far.
I'm keeping oversized cash cushion and trading the range. Today I opened 3D Systems (DDD) long position again. I think it moved into 14.50 - 16.50 range for now.

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