Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Thank You, Uncle Ben!

This is what we really need: leadership. It looks like Bernanke persuaded heads of Central Banks to do something. They probably didn't have any choice, situation is really scary. It looks like dollar carry trade is unwinding right now. Banks, which borrowed dollars to buy Euro denominated bonds, now are forced to sell everything and buy dollars back, because Euro fell related to dollar and they are probably facing massive collateral calls. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of hedge funds got caught the same way and now are faced with huge margin calls.

Central Banks action is good, but not enough. Not even close. We need coordinated QE from Fed and ECB. Soft default of Greece killed a lot of liquidity (talk about unintended consequences). Sharp rise of yields on Italian and Spanish bonds created huge strains. International financial system is in a huge trouble. If something big happens (default of one more country, failure of a big bank, exit from one country from Euro), everybody will suffer. We are not isolated in US. We can have much more trouble than in 2008.

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