Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Non-Predictions for 2010: Results

I did an experiment about a year ago: tried to predict events that will not happen, even though many people believed they might (here).

Results are good. I'd say they are excellent.

1. Fed will not raise rates.
Fed raised discount rate, but not the federal funds rate. This is the only prediction that partially failed, I give it score of 0.5.

2. Chinese bubble will not pop.
It didn't. Score 1.

3. Israel will not attack Iran.
No attack. Score 1.

4. Gold will not hit $2000.
Still below $1500. Score 1.

5. There will be no commercial real estate crash.
None so far. Score 1.

6. Not more than one EU country will default.
None. Score 1.

My non-predictions were right on. Total score: 5.5 of 6.
I will publish my non-predictions for 2011 shortly. So far I feel that predictions 1,4,5,6 for 2010 are good for 2011 as well. Not so sure about 2 and 3.

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1 comment:

smith said...
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