Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Sliding Slope

Big day down. But that's not the problem. The problem is that all metrics are pointing down more.


Not good. Economy is kinda growing, but slow. Unemployment is still high. Banks are not lending and businesses are not trying to get more credit. QE2 so far only managed to scare everybody into fixed income and commodities and now this trade is unwinding. Company after company predicts uncertain outlook. Worst of all, inflation is nowhere to be found, unless you listen too much GOP BS.


Broken. Indices closed third day under 13-day moving average and closing to 50-day MA. Trend is fresh and good, probably all way to 200-day MA.


Too many bulls everywhere. That's not good either.

My take, this downtrend is going to continue for a while. We might get some reprieve (should get one tomorrow), but fall rally ran out of steam and markets need some time to readjust and recover. I still think that we might get another rally in December (Hey, Santa, where are you?), there should be window dressing.

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