Thursday, May 20, 2010

Korea Kills Market

There is a lot of speculation around, blaming EU problems for the current state of stock market. Some people also blame coming US financial regulation.

Wrong! Both these themes are yesterday news. Yesterday news don't move market.

I think the news which sunk market today was from Korea. Situation there is really bad. Seoul is under constant threat from North Korean artillery, that's why South is usually very careful in everything they say and do. But now situation is crystal clear: Northen sub entered waters of South Korea and sunk a warship. Act of war, loud and clear. South has to respond. Question is: how? And US is under obligation to help South in case of war.

The main problem is Government if North Korea, if this gang of murderers can be called government. I have the impression that they are completely crazy. OK, they have maybe 5 nukes, they can kill millions even if one hits Seoul. But they will be wiped out from the face of the Earth in such case! Probably they don't know any other way than to bully and present themselves as fearless machos.

I hope that this situation doesn't lead to war. But hope is not an investment vehicle. That's why market sold out. I don't expect significant improvement until this situation resolved one way or another.

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