Monday, August 31, 2009

Good to be back

I'm back. My family matters are taken care of, I can return to blogging.

The main theme right now is continuing buying panic. Some big funds buy everything, good or bad. They don't care, the only bad thing for them is to show too much cash on balance on September 30. I don't know when this panic is going to end and which way. So far, I did couple of trades around positions, which I mentioned earlier. I'm still in a bullish mode, if there is a pullback. But I'm not going to buy into buying panic, this is a sure way to lose money. There will be opportunities to buy cheaper. My sectors of interest are still tech, banks, debt and REITs.

Another emerging theme is China. This might be huge. Somehow most pundits think that US debt is the next bubble and miss the obvious. China's export is down more than 20% year to year and they claim growth?! In export depending economy?!! The problem is pin action. If China bubble pops, commodities are going down. All of them, with exception of natural gas, which is lying on the floor already. And this is a double edged sword. Lower commodity prices should help economies of the world to recover. With exception of economies depending on said commodities. Because many of commodity depending countries are not politically stable, implications can be frightening.

And third theme: Japan. There is functioning democracy there, at last. I hope it will help to revive petrified society, which should be good for economy. My huge congratulations to the people of the country! In other words, first time in my investment career, I'm considering buying Japanese stocks or ETFs.

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