Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Buying Panic

I expected it a month ago. It's hard to imagine what is causing buying panic right now. But all signs are clear: stocks are going up no matter what. Number of bulls on TV and in press jumped up.

Usual reasons for buying (and selling) panic do not apply here. There is no change in fundamentals: maybe things are getting worse slower than before, big deal! Earning reports are mostly awful, the only reason most companies are beating estimates is because they cut expenses to the bone. This is not the way to improve economy. Technicals are contradictory and sentiment is too bullish. All signs are pointing down and stocks are going up.

Looks like big guys (remember, according to Jim Cramer "they are the market") woke up to the fact that we are in the bull market. Surprise! It took them more than 4 months! They are too big, they can't increase positions in couple of days. That's probably the reason we didn't have window dressing rally a month ago. Now they are building positions for window dressing for the quarter ending in September.

What does it mean for a small investor? It's time to look for discrepancy between perception and reality, in words of Todd Harrison. There are some stocks which moved a lot lately, it's possible to trade around them. There are some obviously overpriced, we can take profits there, if we have them. Buying panic is not the time for buying long term.

Seeking Alpha Certified

No comments: