Friday, February 6, 2009

Dansing Bull Cramer, Revisited.

Jim Cramer surprised me today, again. We already had one surprise conversion on December 5 (commented here), today we have another one.

What happened? Market rallied today. As far as I see, it's a typical bear market rally, we saw even bigger ones in the last 12 months. OK, it was rally on all bad news. So what, bear rallies happen for a lot of reasons or without any reason whatsoever. Even the fact that it was two days rally doesn't matter a thing: we saw four days rally between December 29 and January 2. And hope that China somehow can implement some smart infrastructure investment and save the world from the Great Depression 2.0 is just hope. Jim has an excellent commandment in his great book "Real Money: Sane Investment in an Insane World": "Hope is not a part of the equation".

Sorry Jim. It's still bear market. It will bottom when public accepts the fact that we are in Great Depression 2.0. And that would happen some time after you accept it.

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