Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Fed Sees Things (Really?)

Todays cut is what economy needs. Is it enough? I'm afraid not. I'm sticking with my forecast: below 1% rate by January 2009. By mid-2009 we should see start of dollar carry trade.

I'm starting to doubt Gilead (GILD) lately. Great quarter, no doubt. But, future doesn't look great:

hepatitis B drug loses in tests against competition
hepatitis C drug doesn't show good results in tests
four Viread (HIV blockbuster drug) patents were preliminary rejected
governments sharply reduced purchases of Tamiflu (bird flu drug).

I'm not acting yet, just thinking.

Full disclosure: at the time of publication author had long position in GILD. Positions can change at any time.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an investment advice. Every person should make her/his own investment decisions based on all available information and advice from her/his own financial advisor.

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