Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Why I Sold Qualcomm

I closed my Qualcomm (QCOM) position yesterday. This is a tough case. On the surface, company is great. Last quarter report was outstanding. Profit is good and growing. Dividend is over 2%. Why selling?
Because I'm buying stocks for one reason and one reasong only: to make money. Never falling in love with any stock. Never confuse a stock with a company.
Now, about negative things. Qualcomm the stock currently is below the year ago price. So, revenues and profits grew, dividend was successfully paid, and stock went (albeit slightly) down. Why? Because all suppliers of mobile components stagnated. There are two reasons for it:
1. Saturation of smartphone market. People, at least most of them, don't pay $600 for a smartphone anymore. Myself included.
2. Competition is fierce. As a result, margins tend to be low, and smartphone producers change suppliers on a fly. Sometimes Broadcom (BRCM) beats Qualcomm, cometimes it the other way around. Everybody waits for Intel (INTC) to enter this market.
My feeling is there is no growth in this stock, or any other supplier of smartphone components. The only related stock worth holding is ARM (ARMH).

Disclosure: I am long ARMH. I have no positions in other stocks mentioned. Positions can change any time.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Why I Reduced Intuitive Surgical Position

I had a bright idea today. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was going to report earnings tonight With the preannouncement, shares were already down and conventional wisdom would be that earnings might not be that bad as everybody thinks. I thought that actual earnings would be even worse. So I sold part of my position into a slight pop-up today.
I was right. Something is going wrong at the company. Now, it's not unusual for shares of this company to fluctuate wildly. And I made serious money on it already. I'm planning to do some extra research and decide "hold it or fold it".
Disclosure: I am long ISRG.
Additional disclosure: Positions can change any time.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Why Restoration Hardware?

I opened a new position on Friday: Restoration Hardware (RH). Bought is for the following reasons:
This is the company selling stuff to rich people. Such companies are the most successful right now.
I visited the store. I saw something other similar companies (like Pottery Barn) don't have: style. Style sells.
Company was growing fast and analysts think it will continue growing 40% a year. This is the growth I usually buy.
Price dropped lately. The reason: there were rumors of secondary offering. Reality: no secondary offering. Several big holders sold a big chunk of shares all at once. This is a discount situation, i.e. "buy, buy, buy".
As usual, I can be wrong. I'm not buying all at once. I'm not recommending anything, you are responsible for your money.
Disclosure: I am long RH.
Additional disclosure: Positions can change any time.